Date

7-21-2026

Department

Helms School of Government

Degree

Doctor of Philosophy in Public Policy (PhD)

Chair

Elizabeth Cook

Keywords

Iran, IRGC, neo-realism, nation-state balancing, JCPOA, maximum pressure

Disciplines

Political Science | Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration

Abstract

Iran’s development of criminal foreign policy capabilities in the United States represents an emerging phenomenon that is transforming the U.S.-Iran foreign policy relationship from a national security issue, primarily executed abroad, into a homeland security threat located within the United States. As an emerging dimension of the U.S.-Iran foreign policy relationship, this behavior by Iran must be thoroughly understood to aid U.S. policymakers in developing relevant policies to address the issue. However, Iran’s motivations for its international behavior are hotly debated among scholars of international relations (IR) theory. Some see Iran’s behavior as ideologically based, while others claim Iran’s behavior is strongly rooted in neorealist theory. Through a quasi-experimental, non-equivalent sample, quantitative design, this study seeks to directly test neorealist theory in the development of this phenomenon. The study compiles observations of Iranian crime conducted in the United States over two distinct policy periods from 2013 to 2020 to operationalize the neorealist concept of nation-state balancing and test neorealist theory. Based on statistical analyses using both parametric (independent samples t-test and logistic regression) and nonparametric (chi-squared) tests, this study provides tentative evidence that Iran’s ideological impulses animate Iranian behavior in this emerging phenomenon rather than power-based neorealist principles. However, the regression model developed from the data invites further study of the phenomenon, which continues to increase dramatically over the studied period in alarming ways. The analyses invite future study related to the ideological and power-based motivations for nation-state actions, as well as how and why interstate conflict spreads. Additionally, the results advance and extend contemporary theory on how the neorealist concept of nation-state balancing might evolve to fully capture new nation-state balancing techniques that are not yet fully captured or aligned with current neorealist definitions.

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