Date

4-7-2026

Department

Helms School of Government

Degree

Doctor of Philosophy in Public Policy (PhD)

Chair

Carl Rehberg

Keywords

uncertainty, tradecraft, analysis, estimative language, analyst training, politicization, policy influence, intelligence failures

Disciplines

Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration

Abstract

U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) analysts face incessant challenges in expressing and explaining uncertainty (dependent variable) when communicating analytic judgments to their clients. IC analysts theorize and apply estimative language and levels of confidence in their analysis, and then it is received by decision-makers, ultimately having an impact on policy making. Historic case studies of the pre-war intelligence assessment of Iraqi WMD, the operational and diplomatic outcome of the 2011 raid on UBL, and the intelligence surprise of COVD-19 reflect the impact that uncertainty has on strategic analysis. Data is collected from primary sources, coded, and interpreted to survey ideas and practices of Intelligence Community Directive 203 (ICD 203), Analytic Standards (2015) in the way intelligence analysts use it as a guide to communicate uncertainty. This research cross examines the challenges of uncertainty in the U.S. sectors of public health, weather forecasting and climate change, and economics. By applying Mill’s (1843) method of agreement, this research isolates the independent variables that consistently contribute to uncertainty communication failures, establishing a causal link between these variables and intelligence misjudgments in high-stakes decision-making. By bridging intelligence studies with broader governance and policy discussions, this research contributes to academic literature by providing a systematic analysis of how intelligence politicization, analyst training, groupthink, failure to challenge assumptions, and overconfidence shape uncertainty communication, offering insights for both intelligence practitioners and scholars in national security and intelligence governance.

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