Crafting Policy in the Shadow of the Bomb: The Influence of Nuclear Weapons on Conventional Force Structure

Author(s)

Ronald Ernest Waters, Liberty UniversityFollow

Date

12-4-2025

Department

Helms School of Government

Degree

Doctor of Philosophy in Public Policy (PhD)

Chair

Kenneth J. Hutchinson

Keywords

Stability-Instability Paradox, Nuclear Strategy, Balance of Power, Geopolitics, Military Force Planning and Structure

Disciplines

Political Science | Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration

Recommended Citation

Waters, Ronald Ernest, "Crafting Policy in the Shadow of the Bomb: The Influence of Nuclear Weapons on Conventional Force Structure" (2025). Doctoral Dissertations and Projects. 7768.
https://digitalcommons.liberty.edu/doctoral/7768

Abstract

This manuscript sets out to understand the degree to which nuclear force structure influences conventional force structure. In February 1953, regarding the problem of containing the worldwide spread of communism, President Dwight Eisenhower stated that “Our problem is to achieve military strength within the limits of endurable strain on our economy.” By October 1953, the New Look strategy reached its final form as articulated in NSC 162/2. In January 1954, Secretary of State John Foster Dulles made the New Look strategy known to the world through which nuclear lethality would offset conventional lethality to deter aggressors. However, the result of such a strategy according to Glenn Snyder would result in a stability-instability paradox. The limited published research that exists on related topics adopted primarily qualitative approaches due to uncertainty of how to approach the subject quantitatively. However, this manuscript employs regression analysis of continuous measures of nuclear and conventional (mixed) lethality among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (P5) between 1984 and 2024. In analyzing the data, it becomes possible to understand correlations and if causal relationships exist, as well as the rational thought that connects mixed force planning. Such findings will be used to confirm whether or not nuclear lethality can be shown to have achieved meaningful offsets via a causal relationship with conventional lethality with statistical significance. The results and conclusions herein will create future research opportunities at Liberty University regarding new public policy subject matter. As the first to publish, Liberty University is the first-mover into this particular research space with influence on civil, military, and commercial policies and goals.