Date

3-22-2024

Department

Helms School of Government

Degree

Doctor of Philosophy in Public Policy (PhD)

Chair

Jared L Perry

Keywords

Intelligence Analysis, Ethnocentrism, Sensemaking, Data-Frame Theory, Cognitive Bias, Comprehensive Analysis, Six-Dimensions of National Culture, Intelligence Policy, Heuristics, Information Synthesis

Disciplines

Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration

Abstract

Varying internal and external stimulants naturally oscillate the creation of objective intelligence analysis; however, the most egregious offender to accuracy and completeness is the natural human mental process. No element of intelligence analysis is more formidable than the cognitive process that houses specific deviations, known as biases, as it yields inaccuracies and alters what is believed to be a rational response to a complex analytical problem. The phenomenon of ethnocentrism is consistently identified as an analytical limitation of intelligence professionals, derived from cognitive bias. Ultimately, ethnocentrism manifests an analyst’s perception of information directly through the lens of culturally dependent heuristics and cognitive patterns accumulated over a lifetime. The application of the Six-Dimensions of National Culture (6-D model), put forth in 1980 by Geert Hofstede, was selected to alter this pattern via an exploratory qualitative multi-case study involving Imperial Japan (Pearl Harbor), the Soviet Union (Cuban Missile Crisis), and al-Qaeda before September 11, 2001. With the application of the 6-D model, in concert with the Data-Frame Theory, as presented by Moore and Hoffman, this dissertation attempts to amplify the human capacity to make sense of ethnocentrism by expanding analytical frames and, as a result, help analysts produce and disseminate more holistic intelligence. Research results identified significant divergence between the created cultural disposition and the US intelligence perspective, specifically throughout the IDV, MAS, and IVR cultural dimensions. This study highlights the implications of ethnocentrism within the intelligence paradigm and identifies the necessity to employ cultural condition frameworks when attempting to produce accurate and comprehensive intelligence.

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