School of Education


Doctor of Education (EdD)


Rebecca Lunde


At-Risk Student, Early Warning System, High School Completion, High School Dropout, High School Graduation Rate


Education | Educational Assessment, Evaluation, and Research | Educational Methods | Educational Psychology | Other Education


This quantitative, correlational study focuses on the examination of at-risk student indicators and the practice of early identification and intervention as it pertains to high school graduation. It utilized logistic regression to determine whether a set of predictor variables (Criterion Referenced Competency Test math, final math and English grades, and number of absences) can accurately predict the criterion variable of graduation from high school. The analysis also determined which variables best predict the criterion variable. The analysis utilized archived data on African American males who entered ninth grade in a large U.S. school district during the 2013-2014 school year. The data was scrubbed to maintain the confidentiality of the students. Once all data was coded and assumptions were met, logistic regression analysis was run and analyzed by the researcher. The analysis determined all four predictor variables were significant predictors of high school end status (dropout or graduate) with CRCT math score, final English grade, and final math grade being the most significant predictors. The complete regression model utilizing all variables correctly classified 80.4% of cases.