Date
9-17-2026
Department
School of Music
Degree
Doctor of Music Education (DME)
Chair
Paul Rumrill
Keywords
reading wall, advanced cliff, predictability gap, memorization mask, ABRSM
Disciplines
Educational Assessment, Evaluation, and Research | Music
Recommended Citation
Ng, Arthur Chit-ho, "The Predictability Gap: A Correlation Study of Supporting Pillars and Repertoire Success in ABRSM Practical and Performance Grades Piano Examinations" (2026). Doctoral Dissertations and Projects. 8919.
https://digitalcommons.liberty.edu/doctoral/8919
Abstract
This study investigated the structural predictability trajectories within the Associated Board of the Royal Schools of Music (ABRSM) graded piano framework. Utilizing an explanatory sequential mixed-methods design, the project analyzed a longitudinal dataset (N = 449) to investigate variance in student achievement and the emergence of developmental plateaus, conceptually identified as the “Reading Wall.” Quantitative modeling revealed distinct structural divergences within the syllabus architecture: the traditional Practical Grades maintained a stable correlational signal between technical components and outcomes (r = .826 at Grade 7), whereas the digital Performance Grades yielded a non-significant association (p = .355). Furthermore, Grade 5 Music Theory demonstrated a localized weak correlation (r = .100) with advanced sight-reading metrics, while regression identified a tightly integrated “Triple Helix” of repertoire-centric markers (r > .949) across both modalities. To explain the behaviors driving these trends, a substantial qualitative inquiry executed a Comparative Global Audit across Shanghai, Hong Kong, and London, alongside a Reflective Narrative of Professional Experience. This qualitative phase analyzed longitudinal candidate case studies to reveal how the quantitative “Triple Helix” functioned pragmatically as a “Memorization Mask,” wherein high repertoire marks inadvertently obscure systemic attrition in physical technical scaffolding, cognitive auditory processing, and early-stage discipline. Rather than challenging modern modalities, this research utilized these practitioner insights to optimize construct validity. The study introduced the “Quadratic Reform Model” to reinforce sustainable, independent musical literacy, ensuring that advanced certification reflected comprehensive and durable musicianship.
