Start Date
18-3-2025 12:45 PM
End Date
18-3-2025 2:00 PM
Level of Education
Doctoral
Keywords
Great Power Competition, Huntington Civilizational Influence Strategies, Disruptions, Influence, ValueNet, Chaos theory
Abstract
Building upon a paper presented at the 2024 Liberty Spring Conference, ‘The 5 Disruptions And How Does The U.S. Prepare For Managing Them’, this paper looks to create a framework that instantiates the 3 recommendations from that paper: Adapting a Civilizational Approach, Embracing Chaos Theory and Maintaining a Whole of Gov’t approach. Protecting Freedom in the Great Power Era requires States to compete across many venues since these States have greater resources and abilities to employ those resources. Complex environments are dynamic and induce uncertainty in decision making. Peer competitors create their own strategic paths and adjust their strategic decision making to leverage inherent strengths, embrace responses that are multilayer in the competition realm and incorporate tools for the new environment. To accomplish those objectives, States need several mechanisms: 1) an ability to distinguish between allies, competitors, and other interested parties; 2) valuation systems that provide consistent values across different realms; and 3) organizational paradigms nimble enough for the new era. This paper will introduce several methods for improving decision making in the great power era, including The Huntington Civilizational Influence Strategies, ValueNet constructs and Strategic Foresight tools (Horizon scanning, Trend Identification and Analysis, etc.) to provide insights for proactively developing strategic responses to short and long-term events. To illustrate the principles in the paper, a case study on States using Population Disruptions to induce competitive advantages in the short and long term will be examined using competitive whole of government approaches conducted by both the US and China.
Flourishing in a World of Disruption: Optimizing the Decision Making In The 5 Disruptions Era
Building upon a paper presented at the 2024 Liberty Spring Conference, ‘The 5 Disruptions And How Does The U.S. Prepare For Managing Them’, this paper looks to create a framework that instantiates the 3 recommendations from that paper: Adapting a Civilizational Approach, Embracing Chaos Theory and Maintaining a Whole of Gov’t approach. Protecting Freedom in the Great Power Era requires States to compete across many venues since these States have greater resources and abilities to employ those resources. Complex environments are dynamic and induce uncertainty in decision making. Peer competitors create their own strategic paths and adjust their strategic decision making to leverage inherent strengths, embrace responses that are multilayer in the competition realm and incorporate tools for the new environment. To accomplish those objectives, States need several mechanisms: 1) an ability to distinguish between allies, competitors, and other interested parties; 2) valuation systems that provide consistent values across different realms; and 3) organizational paradigms nimble enough for the new era. This paper will introduce several methods for improving decision making in the great power era, including The Huntington Civilizational Influence Strategies, ValueNet constructs and Strategic Foresight tools (Horizon scanning, Trend Identification and Analysis, etc.) to provide insights for proactively developing strategic responses to short and long-term events. To illustrate the principles in the paper, a case study on States using Population Disruptions to induce competitive advantages in the short and long term will be examined using competitive whole of government approaches conducted by both the US and China.
